Transmissibility quantification of norovirus outbreaks in 2016-2021 in Beijing, China

Yu Wang; Zhiyong Gao; Qingbin Lu; Baiwei Liu; Lei Jia; Lingyu Shen; Yi Tian; Weihong Li; Hanqiu Yan; Daitao Zhang; Peng Yang; Liqun Fang; Quanyi Wang; Fuqiang Cui

doi:10.1002/jmv.29153

Transmissibility quantification of norovirus outbreaks in 2016-2021 in Beijing, China

J Med Virol. 2023 Oct;95(10):e29153. doi: 10.1002/jmv.29153.

Authors

Yu Wang^{1

2}, Zhiyong Gao², Qingbin Lu³, Baiwei Liu², Lei Jia², Lingyu Shen², Yi Tian², Weihong Li², Hanqiu Yan², Daitao Zhang², Peng Yang², Liqun Fang⁴, Quanyi Wang², Fuqiang Cui^{1

3

5}

Affiliations

¹ Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, China.
² Institute for Infectious Disease and Endemic Disease Control, Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Beijing, China.
³ Department of Laboratory Science and Technology & Vaccine Research Center, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, China.
⁴ State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, China.
⁵ Key Laboratory of Epidemiology of Major Diseases (Peking University), Ministry of Education, Beijing, China.

PMID: 37804388
DOI: 10.1002/jmv.29153

Abstract

The transmissibility is a crucial feature for norovirus, yet its quantitative estimation has been limited. Our objective was to estimate the basic reproduction number (R₀ ) of norovirus and investigate its variation characteristics. Norovirus outbreaks reported from September 2016 to August 2021 in Beijing were analyzed. The susceptible-infected-removed compartment model was established to estimate R₀ . Linear regression models and logistic regression models were used to explore the factors affecting the transmissibility of norovirus. The overall median R₀ of norovirus was estimated as 2.1 (interquartile range [IQR] 1.8-2.5), with 650 norovirus outbreaks. The transmissibility of norovirus varied by year, outbreak setting and genotype. The R₀ of norovirus during September 2019 to August 2020 (median 2.1, IQR 1.8-2.4) and September 2020 to August 2021 (median 2.0, IQR 1.7-2.3) was lower than that of September 2016 to August 2017 (median 2.3, IQR 1.8-2.7) (β = 0.94, p = 0.05; β = 0.93, p = 0.008). The R₀ of norovirus for all other settings was lower than that for kindergarten (median 2.4, IQR 2.0-2.9) (primary school: median 2.0, IQR 1.7-2.4, β = 0.94, p = 0.001; secondary school: median 1.7, IQR 1.5-2.0, β = 0.87, p < 0.001; college: median 1.7, IQR 1.5-1.8, β = 0.89, p = 0.03; other closed settings: median 1.8, IQR 1.5-2.0, β = 0.90, p = 0.004). GⅡ.2[P16] outbreaks had a median R₀ of 2.2 (IQR 1.8-2.7), which was higher than that for GⅡ.6[P7] outbreaks (median 1.8, IQR: 1.8-2.0, odds ratio = 0.19, p = 0.03; GⅡ.2[P16] as reference) and mixed-genotype outbreaks (median 1.7, IQR: 1.5-1.8, β = 0.92, p = 0.02; mixed-genotype as reference). In kindergartens and primary schools, norovirus shows increased transmissibility, emphasizing the vulnerable population and high-risk settings. Furthermore, the transmissibility of norovirus may change over time and with virus evolution, necessitating additional research to uncover the underlying mechanisms.

Keywords: basic reproduction number (R0); epidemiology; genotype; norovirus; outbreaks.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

Beijing / epidemiology
Caliciviridae Infections* / epidemiology
China / epidemiology
Disease Outbreaks
Gastroenteritis* / epidemiology
Genotype
Humans
Norovirus* / genetics