A Dynamic Model for Estimating the Retention Duration of Neutralizing Antibody Titers After Vaccination in a COVID-19 Convalescent Population

Fang-Chi Hsu; Li-Chern Pan; Yen-Fang Huang; Chin-Hui Yang; Ming-Neng Shiu; Hsiu-Ju Lin

doi:10.1093/infdis/jiad431

A Dynamic Model for Estimating the Retention Duration of Neutralizing Antibody Titers After Vaccination in a COVID-19 Convalescent Population

J Infect Dis. 2024 Feb 14;229(2):398-402. doi: 10.1093/infdis/jiad431.

Authors

Fang-Chi Hsu^{1

2}, Li-Chern Pan³, Yen-Fang Huang^{1

4}, Chin-Hui Yang^{5

6}, Ming-Neng Shiu^{1

7

8}, Hsiu-Ju Lin^{9

10}

Affiliations

¹ Research Center for Epidemic Prevention and One Health, National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University, Taipei, Taiwan.
² Department of Global Health and Social Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
³ Graduate Institute of Biomedical Optomechatronics, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan.
⁴ Division of Preparedness and Emerging Infectious Diseases, Taiwan Centers for Disease Control, Taipei, Taiwan.
⁵ Division of Acute Infectious Diseases, Taiwan Centers for Disease Control, Taipei, Taiwan.
⁶ Department of Infectious Disease, Taipei Medical University Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan.
⁷ Institute of Health and Welfare Policy, National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University, Taipei, Taiwan.
⁸ Department of Pharmacy, National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University, Taipei, Taiwan.
⁹ School of Social Work, University of Connecticut, Storrs, Connecticut, USA.
¹⁰ Connecticut Department of Mental Health and Addiction Services, Hartford, Connecticut, USA.

PMID: 37798128
DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jiad431

Abstract

We measured neutralizing antibodies (nAbs) against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in a cohort of 235 convalescent patients (representing 384 analytic samples). They were followed for up to 588 days after the first report of onset in Taiwan. A proposed Bayesian approach was used to estimate nAb dynamics in patients postvaccination. This model revealed that the titer reached its peak (1819.70 IU/mL) by 161 days postvaccination and decreased to 154.18 IU/mL by day 360. Thus, the nAb titers declined in 6 months after vaccination. Protection, against variant B.1.1.529 (ie, Omicron) may only occur during the peak period.

Keywords: Bayesian; COVID-19; Markov chain Monte Carlo; neutralizing antibody titer.

MeSH terms

Antibodies, Neutralizing
Antibodies, Viral
Bayes Theorem
COVID-19* / prevention & control
Humans
SARS-CoV-2
Vaccination

Substances

Antibodies, Neutralizing
Antibodies, Viral

Abstract

MeSH terms

Substances

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