Pesticide effect on earthworm lethality via interpretable machine learning

Abstract

Earthworms are among the most important animals (invertebrates) for soil health. Many chemical substances released into nature for agricultural development, such as pesticides, may have unwanted effects on those organisms. However, it is essential to understand the extent of the impact of chemicals on soil health first and then make the proper decisions for regulatory or commercial purposes. We hypothesize that there is an expressible quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) between the structure of pesticide compounds and the acute toxicity effect of earthworm species Eisenia fetida. The description of this relationship allows for a better assessment of the impact of chemicals on the said earthworm. To describe this relationship, a dataset of chemicals was collected from open-access sources to develop a mathematical model. A novel approach, combining genetic algorithm and Bayesian optimization, was used to select structural features into the model and to optimize model parameters. The final QSAR classification model was created with the Random Forest algorithm and exhibited good prediction Accuracy of 0.78 on training set and 0.80 on test set. The model representation follows FAIR principles and is available on QsarDB.org.

Keywords: Bayesian optimization; Earthworm acute toxicity; Genetic algorithm; QSAR; Random forest.