Development and external validation of a machine learning-based model to classify uric acid stones in patients with kidney stones of Hounsfield units < 800

Abstract

The correct diagnosis of uric acid (UA) stones has important clinical implications since patients with a high risk of perioperative morbidity may be spared surgical intervention and be offered alkalization therapy. We developed and validated a machine learning (ML)-based model to identify stones on computed tomography (CT) images and simultaneously classify UA stones from non-UA stones. An international, multicenter study was performed on 202 patients who received percutaneous nephrolithotomy for kidney stones with HU < 800. Data from 156 (77.2%) patients were used for model development, while data from 46 (22.8%) patients from a multinational institution were used for external validation. A total of 21,074 kidney and stone contour-annotated CT images were trained with the ResNet-18 Mask R-convolutional neural network algorithm. Finally, this model was concatenated with demographic and clinical data as a fully connected layer for stone classification. Our model was 100% sensitive in detecting kidney stones in each patient, and the delineation of kidney and stone contours was precise within clinically acceptable ranges. The development model provided an accuracy of 99.9%, with 100.0% sensitivity and 98.9% specificity, in distinguishing UA from non-UA stones. On external validation, the model performed with an accuracy of 97.1%, with 89.4% sensitivity and 98.6% specificity. SHAP plots revealed stone density, diabetes mellitus, and urinary pH as the most important features for classification. Our ML-based model accurately identified and delineated kidney stones and classified UA stones from non-UA stones with the highest predictive accuracy reported to date. Our model can be reliably used to select candidates for an earlier-directed alkalization therapy.

Keywords: Decision support techniques; Machine learning; Urolithiasis; Validation.