The MAPS-CRAFITY score: a novel efficacy predictive tool for unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma treated with targeted therapy plus immunotherapy

Abstract

Background: Body composition parameters (BCPs) are associated with mortality in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Our purpose was to develop a practical scoring model by BCP and the CRAFITY score to predict the overall survival (OS) and tumor response of patients with HCC who received targeted therapy plus immunotherapy.

Methods: This retrospective study included 265 patients with HCC who received targeted therapy plus immunotherapy at 2 centers in China from August 2018 to February 2022. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were applied to analyze clinical factors and BCP. A scoring model based on independent risk factors was developed to predict OS and tumor response. Moreover, the model's prediction was further validated by an external cohort.

Results: A total of 150 patients (55.5 ± 10.8 years) and 115 patients (55.0 ± 8.9 years) treated with lenvatinib or bevacizumab biosimilar plus anti-programmed death-1 (PD-1) antibody were included in training and validation cohorts, respectively. In the training cohort, independent predictive factors for OS included macrovascular invasion (p = 0.016), Child‒Pugh class (A vs. B, p = 0.001; A vs. C, p < 0.001), sarcopenia (p = 0.034), and the CRAFITY score (p = 0.011). Based on independent risk factors (MAcrovascular invasion, Child‒Pugh class, Sarcopenia, and the CRAFITY score) identified by multivariate analysis, a novel efficacy predictive tool named the MAPS-CRAFITY score was developed to predict OS. In all the training and validation cohorts, the OS differed significantly across the three groups based on the MAPS-CRAFITY score (< 2.1, 2.1-2.3, ≥ 2.4; p < 0.001). Moreover, the C-index of the MAPS-CRAFITY score was 0.720 and 0.761 in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. In both the validation and training cohorts, the MAPS-CRAFITY score was predictive of tumor response and disease control (p < 0.001). The AUCs of the MAPS-CRAFITY score for predicting disease control were 0.752 in the training cohort and 0.836 in the validation cohort.

Conclusions: The MAPS-CRAFITY score based on sarcopenia and the CRAFITY score is a reliable and practical tool for predicting the efficacy of targeted therapy plus immunotherapy in patients with unresectable HCC, and may help hepatologists and oncologists in clinical decision-making.

Keywords: Hepatocellular carcinoma; Immunotherapy; Prognostic prediction; Sarcopenia; Targeted therapy.