Projected decline in European bumblebee populations in the twenty-first century

Abstract

Habitat degradation and climate change are globally acting as pivotal drivers of wildlife collapse, with mounting evidence that this erosion of biodiversity will accelerate in the following decades^1-3. Here, we quantify the past, present and future ecological suitability of Europe for bumblebees, a threatened group of pollinators ranked among the highest contributors to crop production value in the northern hemisphere^4-8. We demonstrate coherent declines of bumblebee populations since 1900 over most of Europe and identify future large-scale range contractions and species extirpations under all future climate and land use change scenarios. Around 38-76% of studied European bumblebee species currently classified as 'Least Concern' are projected to undergo losses of at least 30% of ecologically suitable territory by 2061-2080 compared to 2000-2014. All scenarios highlight that parts of Scandinavia will become potential refugia for European bumblebees; it is however uncertain whether these areas will remain clear of additional anthropogenic stressors not accounted for in present models. Our results underline the critical role of global change mitigation policies as effective levers to protect bumblebees from manmade transformation of the biosphere.