Detrended seasonal relationships and impact of climatic factors combined with spatiotemporal effect on the prevalence of human brucellosis

Abstract

Human brucellosis (HB) is a seasonal and climate-affected infectious disease that is posing an increasing threat to public health and economy. However, most of the research on the seasonal relationships and impact of climatic factors on HB did not consider the secular trend and spatiotemporal effect related to the disease. We herein utilized long-term surveillance data on HB from 2008 to 2020 using sinusoidal models to explore detrended relationships between climatic factors and HB. In addition, we assessed the impact of such climatic factors on HB using a spatial panel data model combined with the spatiotemporal effect. HB peaked around mid-May. HB was significantly correlated with climatic factors with 1-5-month lag when the respective correlations reached the maximum across the different lag periods. Each 0.1 °C increase in temperature led to 0.5% decrease in the 5-month lag incidence of HB. We also observed a positive spatiotemporal effect on the disease. Our study provides a detailed and in-depth overview of seasonal relationships and impact of climatic factors on HB. In addition, it proposes a novel approach for exploring the seasonal relationships and quantifying the impacts of climatic factors on various infectious diseases.

Keywords: Brucellosis; Climatic factors; Detrended seasonal relationship; Sinusoidal model; Spatial panel data model; Spatiotemporal effect.