A double-cycle echo state network topology for time series prediction

Abstract

Echo state network (ESN) has gained wide acceptance in the field of time series prediction, relying on sufficiently complex reservoir connections to remember the historical features of the data and using these features to obtain the outputs by a simple linear readout. However, the randomness of its input and reservoir connections pose negative impacts on the prediction performance and performance stability of the models, the complexity of reservoir connections brings high time consumption during network computing, and the presence of randomness and complexity makes the hardware implementation of the ESN difficult. In response, we propose a double-cycle ESN (DCESN) based on the Li-ESN model, which has fixed weights to improve prediction performance and performance stability and simpler reservoir connections compared to the classical ESN to reduce the time consumption. The existence of both greatly reduces the difficulty of hardware implementation of the ESN and provides many conveniences for the future application of the ESN. Experimental results on many widely used time series datasets show that the DCESN has comparable or even better prediction performance than the ESN and good robustness against noise and parameter fluctuations.