Unevenly distributed CO2 and its impacts on terrestrial carbon uptake under the changing land uses

Sijian Jiang; Xiangzheng Deng; Ziyue Yu; Wei Cheng

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166805

Unevenly distributed CO₂ and its impacts on terrestrial carbon uptake under the changing land uses

Sci Total Environ. 2023 Dec 10:903:166805. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166805. Epub 2023 Sep 9.

Authors

Sijian Jiang¹, Xiangzheng Deng², Ziyue Yu³, Wei Cheng⁴

Affiliations

¹ College of Geography and Oceanography, Minjiang University, Fuzhou 350108, China; Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China.
² Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100149, China. Electronic address: dengxz@igsnrr.ac.cn.
³ Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; The University of Nottingham Ningbo China, Ningbo 315100, China.
⁴ Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China.

PMID: 37690751
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166805

Abstract

Changes in land-use structure and pattern can affect both atmospheric CO₂ concentrations and the terrestrial carbon budget. To explore the effects of non-uniformly distributed CO₂ concentration on terrestrial carbon uptake under land-use changes, this study integrated global CO₂ concentrations, Net Primary Productivity (NPP), and land-use data under historical period and SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios from 1850 to 2100. Land-use intensity (LUI) and the CO₂ correlation to NPP were calculated using partial correlation analysis by controlling LUI. The results showed that NPP growth over the forest was the highest among the land-use types, reaching 0.54 g C·m², 2.06 g C·m² and 4.64 g C·m², respectively, under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Among all the scenarios, the average correlation levels of atmospheric CO₂ and NPP considering the LUI effect and controlling LUI ranged respectively from 0.34 to 0.68 and from 0.32 to 0.61 at a 5 % level of significance. It suggested that sensible land use planning might enhance the CO₂ fertilization effect and that rises in CO₂ concentrations could stimulate terrestrial carbon absorption. The findings add to the body of knowledge about the effects of atmospheric CO₂ on terrestrial carbon uptake and serve as a scientific guide for protecting terrestrial carbon stocks and managing land use.

Keywords: Global scale; Land-use intensity; Net primary productivity; SSP-RCPs scenarios; Spatial variations in CO(2) concentrations.