How climate change may shift power demand in Japan: Insights from data-driven analysis

Abstract

The impact of climate change on power demand in Japan and its related CO₂ emissions is a matter of concern for the Japanese authorities and power companies as it may have consequences on the power grid, but is also of global importance as Japan is a significant contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions. In this study, we trained random forest models against daily power data in ten Japanese regions and for different types of power generation to project changes in future power production and its carbon intensity. We used climate variables, heat stress indices, and one variable for the level of human activities. We then used the models trained from the present-day period to estimate the future power demand, carbon intensity, and pertaining CO₂ emissions over the period 2020-2100 under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios (SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585). The impact of climate change on CO₂ emissions via power generation shows seasonal and regional disparities. In cold regions, a decrease in power demand during winter under future warming leads to an overall decrease in power demand over the year. In contrast, the decrease in winter power demand in hot regions can be overcompensated by an increase in summer power demand due to more frequent hot days, resulting in an overall annual increase. From our regional models, power demand is projected to increase the most in most Japanese regions in May, June, September, and October rather than in the middle of summer, as found in previous studies. This increase could result in regular power outages during those months as the power grid could become particularly tense. Overall, we observed that power demand in regions with extreme climates is more sensitive to global warming than in temperate regions. The impact of climate change on power demand induces a net annual decrease in CO₂ emissions in all regions except for Okinawa, in which power demand strongly increases during the summer, resulting in a net annual increase in CO₂ emissions. However, climate change's impact on carbon intensity may reverse the trend in some regions (Shikoku, Tohoku). Additionally, we assessed the relative impacts of socioeconomic factors such as population, GDP, and environmental policies on CO₂ emissions. When combined with these factors, we found that the climate change effect is more important than when considered individually and significantly impacts total CO₂ emissions under SSP585. The contrasting results observed in the warm and cold regions of Japan can offer valuable insight into the potential future variations in energy demand and resulting CO₂ emissions on a global scale.

Keywords: CO(2) emissions; Carbon intensity; Climate change; Machine learning; Power demand.