The etiology of Multiple Sclerosis (MS) remains undetermined. Its pathogenic risk factors are thought to play a negligible role individually in the development of the disease, instead assuming a pathogenic role when they interact with each other. Unfortunately, the statistical weighting of this pathogenic role in predicting MS risk is currently elusive, preventing clinical and health insurance applications. Here, we aim to develop a population-based multi-criterial model for weighting biological risk factors in MS; also, to calculate the individual MS risk value useful for health insurance application. Accordingly, among 596 MS patients retrospectively assessed at the time of diagnosis, the value of vitamin D < 10 nm/L, BMI (Body Mass Index) < 15 Kg/m2 and >30 Kg/m2, female sex, degree of family kinship, and the range of age at onset of 20-45 years were considered as biological risk factors for MS. As a result, in a 30-year-old representative patient having a BMI of 15 and second degree of family kinship for MS, the major developmental contributor for disease is the low vitamin D serum level of 10 nm/L, resulting in an MS risk of 0.110 and 0.106 for female and male, respectively. Furthermore, the Choquet integral applied to uncertain variables, such as biological risk factors, evidenced the family kinship as the main contributor, especially if coincident with the others, to the MS risk. This model allows, for the first time, for the risk stratification of getting sick and the application of the health insurance in people at risk for MS.
Keywords: Choquet integral; fuzzy algorithm; health insurance; multiple sclerosis; risk factor.