Increased productivity of temperate vegetation in the preceding year drives early spring phenology in the subsequent year in northern China

Qi Zhang; Hongfang Zhao; Wanying Cheng; Nan Cong; Xuhui Wang; Hangqi Liang; Xia Li

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166676

Increased productivity of temperate vegetation in the preceding year drives early spring phenology in the subsequent year in northern China

Sci Total Environ. 2023 Dec 10:903:166676. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166676. Epub 2023 Sep 4.

Authors

Qi Zhang¹, Hongfang Zhao², Wanying Cheng¹, Nan Cong³, Xuhui Wang⁴, Hangqi Liang¹, Xia Li⁵

Affiliations

¹ School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai, 200241, China.
² School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai, 200241, China; Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science, Ministry of Education, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China; Key Laboratory of Spatial-temporal Big Data Analysis and Application of Natural Resources in Megacities, Ministry of Natural Resources, Shanghai 200241, China. Electronic address: hfzhao@geo.ecnu.edu.cn.
³ Lhasa Plateau Ecosystem Research Station, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China.
⁴ Institute of Carbon Neutrality, Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100091, China.
⁵ School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai, 200241, China; Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science, Ministry of Education, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China; Key Laboratory of Spatial-temporal Big Data Analysis and Application of Natural Resources in Megacities, Ministry of Natural Resources, Shanghai 200241, China.

PMID: 37673244
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166676

Abstract

Under global warming, rising temperature have advanced spring phenology in recent decades. However, the internal physiological mechanisms driving changes in spring phenology still remain poorly understood. Here, we investigated the effects of temperate vegetation gross primary productivity (GPP) during the preceding year on spring phenology of the subsequent year based on the start of growing season (SOS) extracted from NDVI datasets between 1982 and 2015. We found that the preceding year's GPP had an effect on the subsequent year's SOS, equivalent to 33 %-50 % of effect of the preseason's mean temperature. Specifically, in the temperate and semi-humid or humid conditions, the preceding year's GPP had a stronger effect on SOS than in boreal or semi-arid conditions. In addition, the SOS of the dwarf vegetation, with less transport pressure and higher carbon concentrations, was more sensitive to the preceding year's GPP than that of tall forests. We found the effects of the preceding year's GPP on SOS varied with space and vegetation types. Therefore, the physiological mechanism should be considered in future spring phenology model separately according to space and vegetation types, to improve the accuracy of future phenology and then global carbon sequestration predictions.

Keywords: Global warming; Gross primary productivity; Physiological mechanism; Spring phenology.