Understanding how climate warming will influence species interactions is a key question in ecology and predicting changes in the prevalence of disease outbreaks is particularly challenging. Ectotherms are likely to be more influenced by climatic changes as temperature governs their growth, feeding, development, and behavior. We test the hypothesis that pathogen transmission and host mortality will increase at warmer temperatures using a cyclic forest insect, the western tent caterpillar (WTC), Malacosoma californicum pluviale, and its baculovirus. The virus causes population declines at peak host density. WTC are gregarious and clustering is predicted to increase the risk of within family infection; however, how temperature influences this has not been examined. We investigated the impact of temperature on different components of the transmission process in order to pinpoint the possible mechanisms involved. In the laboratory, leaf consumption increased linearly with rising temperature between 15 and 30°C. Insects died more rapidly from virus infection as temperature increased, but this did not translate into differences in the production of viral transmission stages. To examine the influence of temperature on virus transmission, we created a temperature difference between two greenhouses containing potted red alder trees, Alnus rubra. The cooler greenhouse (mean 19.5°C) was roughly similar to ambient temperatures in the field, while the warmer greenhouse was 10°C higher (mean 29°C). As predicted, both larval movement and feeding were higher at the warmer temperature, while the likelihood of the preinfected, inoculum larvae dying on the tents was twice as high in the cooler greenhouse. This resulted in increased virus mortality and a higher transmission parameter under cooler conditions. Therefore, we suggest that, contrary to our prediction, the reduced movement of infected larvae at colder temperatures increased the risk of infection in these gregarious insects and had a greater impact on virus transmission than the increased activity of the susceptible larvae in warmer conditions. Long-term population data from the field, however, show no relationship between temperature and infection levels, suggesting that local changes in virus transmission might not scale up to population infection levels.
Keywords: baculovirus; climate change; cyclic dynamics; disease transmission; forest insect outbreaks; gregariousness; temperature and disease; thermoregulation.
© 2023 The Authors. Ecology published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Ecological Society of America.