RNA tertiary structure prediction in CASP15 by the GeneSilico group: Folding simulations based on statistical potentials and spatial restraints

Abstract

Ribonucleic acid (RNA) molecules serve as master regulators of cells by encoding their biological function in the ribonucleotide sequence, particularly their ability to interact with other molecules. To understand how RNA molecules perform their biological tasks and to design new sequences with specific functions, it is of great benefit to be able to computationally predict how RNA folds and interacts in the cellular environment. Our workflow for computational modeling of the 3D structures of RNA and its interactions with other molecules uses a set of methods developed in our laboratory, including MeSSPredRNA for predicting canonical and non-canonical base pairs, PARNASSUS for detecting remote homology based on comparisons of sequences and secondary structures, ModeRNA for comparative modeling, the SimRNA family of programs for modeling RNA 3D structure and its complexes with other molecules, and QRNAS for model refinement. In this study, we present the results of testing this workflow in predicting RNA 3D structures in the CASP15 experiment. The overall high score of the computational models predicted by our group demonstrates the robustness of our workflow and its individual components in terms of predicting RNA 3D structures of acceptable quality that are close to the target structures. However, the variance in prediction quality is still quite high, and the results are still too far from the level of protein 3D structure predictions. This exercise led us to consider several improvements, especially to better predict and enforce stacking interactions and non-canonical base pairs.

Keywords: 3D structure prediction; RNA folding; base pairing; base stacking; model evaluation; structural bioinformatics.