Trends and disparities in China's cardiovascular disease burden from 1990 to 2019

Abstract

Background and aims: In order to find the exact strategies in the prevention of cardiovascular diseases (CVD), it is necessary to assess their risk factors systematically. Here, we used the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) to review the long-term trends and epidemiological characteristics among Chinese.

Methods and results: We comprehensively analyzed the burden of CVD for the Chinese population using GBD 2019, including prevalence, incidence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Then, we analyzed trends over time, and predicted mortality and morbidity, using joinpoint regression, age-period-cohort (APC) model, and Bayesian APC approach. Finally, we analyzed the attributable burden of CVD. In 2019, the prevalence of CVD in China was 120 million, representing a 140.02% increase since 1990. The number of DALYs attributed to CVD increased by 52.56% compared to 1990. Joinpoint showed a fluctuating incidence downward, while mortality significantly declined. The APC fitting results indicated that recent generations have a higher prevalence than the past, and the prevalence has increased among individuals of the same age group. The BAPC predicted that CVD's prevalence and mortality in the Chinese would stabilize and decline between 2020 and 2030, with a significant decline among males. The main CVD-attributable burdens in 2019 were metabolic risks, especially high blood pressure.

Conclusion: Given China's large and rapidly aging population, the burden of CVD is a major concern. Practical strategies to prevent and manage CVD are urgently needed to address this public health challenge.

Keywords: Age-period-cohort model; Cardiovascular disease; Global burden; Joinpoint regression; Public health.