Dynamic nomogram for predicting infected pancreatic necrosis in female patients of childbearing age with hypertriglyceridemia-induced acute pancreatitis

Abstract

Background: Hypertriglyceridemia is a common cause of acute pancreatitis. Pregnant women are at risk of developing hypertriglyceridemia-induced acute pancreatitis (HTG-AP); however, whether pregnancy increases the risk of infected pancreatic necrosis (IPN) is unknown.

Aim: We aimed to assess the association between pregnancy and IPN.

Methods: This 10-year retrospective cohort study was conducted at Jinling Hospital. Adult female patients of childbearing age with HTG-AP between January 2013 and September 2022 were screened. Logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the risk factors for IPN. Patients admitted within 7 days were assigned to the training and validation sets to develop a dynamic nomogram for IPN prediction.

Results: 489 patients were included, and 144 developed IPN. Logistic regression analyses revealed pregnancy (OR: 2.578 95% CI: 1.474-4.510) as an independent risk factor for IPN. Gestation weeks, ARDS, albumin level, and serum creatinine level were selected as the predictors of the dynamic nomogram for IPN prediction, with good discrimination in the training set (AUC 0.867 95% CI: 0.794-0.940) and validation set (AUC 0.957 95% CI: 0.885-1.000).

Conclusion: Pregnancy increases the risk of IPN in adult patients of childbearing age with HTG-AP, and the dynamic nomogram may help risk stratification for IPN.

Keywords: Acute pancreatitis in pregnancy; Dynamic nomogram; Infected pancreatic necrosis.