Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is used as a bridging treatment in liver transplant candidates with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) is the main tumor marker used for HCC surveillance. The aim of this study was to assess the potential of using the AFP change after the first TACE in the prediction of complete tumor necrosis. The study comprised 101 patients with HCC who underwent liver transplantation (LT) after TACE in the period between January 2011 and December 2020. The ΔAFP was defined as the difference between the AFP value before the first TACE and AFP either before the second TACE or the LT. The receiver operator characteristics (ROC) curves were used to identify an optimal cut-off value. Complete tumor necrosis was found in 26.1% (18 of 69) and 6.3% (2 of 32) of patients with an initial AFP level under and over 100 ng/mL, respectively (p = 0.020). The optimal cut-off value of ΔAFP for the prediction of complete necrosis was a decline of ≥10.2 ng/mL and ≥340.5 ng/mL in the corresponding subgroups. Complete tumor necrosis rates were: 62.5% (5 of 8) in patients with an initial AFP < 100 ng/mL and decline of ≥10.2 ng/mL; 21.3% (13 of 61) in patients with an initial AFP < 100 ng/mL and decline of <10.2 ng/mL; 16.7% (2 of 12) in patients with an initial AFP > 100 ng/mL and decline of ≥340.5 ng/mL; and null in 20 patients with an initial AFP > 100 ng/mL and decline of <340.5 ng/mL, respectively (p = 0.003). The simple scoring system, based on the initial AFP and AFP decline after the first treatment, distinguished between a high, intermediate and low probability of complete necrosis, with an area under the ROC curve of 0.699 (95% confidence intervals 0.577 to 0.821, p = 0.001). Combining the initial AFP with its change after the first treatment enables early identification of the efficacy of TACE.
Keywords: alpha-fetoprotein; hepatocellular carcinoma; liver transplantation; outcomes; transarterial chemoembolization.