A Novel Method for Estimating Emissions Reductions Caused by the Restriction of Mobility: The Case of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Francesco Pomponi; Mengyu Li; Ya-Yen Sun; Arunima Malik; Manfred Lenzen; Grigorios Fountas; Bernardino D'Amico; Ortzi Akizu-Gardoki; Maria Luque Anguita

doi:10.1021/acs.estlett.0c00764

A Novel Method for Estimating Emissions Reductions Caused by the Restriction of Mobility: The Case of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Environ Sci Technol Lett. 2020 Nov 11;8(1):46-52. doi: 10.1021/acs.estlett.0c00764. eCollection 2021 Jan 12.

Authors

Francesco Pomponi¹, Mengyu Li², Ya-Yen Sun³, Arunima Malik^{2

4}, Manfred Lenzen², Grigorios Fountas⁵, Bernardino D'Amico¹, Ortzi Akizu-Gardoki⁶, Maria Luque Anguita⁷

Affiliations

¹ Resource Efficient Built Environment Lab (REBEL), Edinburgh Napier University, Edinburgh EH10 5DT, U.K.
² ISA, School of Physics A28, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia.
³ Business School, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD 4067, Australia.
⁴ Discipline of Accounting, School of Business, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia.
⁵ Transport Research Institute (TRI), School of Engineering and the Built Environment, Edinburgh Napier University, Edinburgh EH10 5DT, U.K.
⁶ Faculty of Engineering of Bilbao, University of the Basque Country (UPV/EHU), 48013 Bilbao, Spain.
⁷ School of Computing, Edinburgh Napier University, Edinburgh EH10 5DT, U.K.

PMID: 37566352
DOI: 10.1021/acs.estlett.0c00764

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic is the single largest event in contemporary history in terms of the global restriction of mobility, with the majority of the world population experiencing various forms of "lockdown". This phenomenon incurred increased amounts of teleworking and time spent at home, fewer trips to shops, closure of retail outlets selling non-essential goods, and the near disappearance of leisure and recreational activities. This paper presents a novel method for an economy-wide estimate of the emissions reductions caused by the restriction of movement. Using a global multiregional macro-economic model complemented by Google Community Mobility Reports (CMRs) and national transport data, we cover 129 individual countries and quantify direct and indirect global emissions reductions of greenhouse gases (GHG; 1173 Mt), PM_2.5 (0.23 Mt), SO₂ (1.57 Mt), and NO_x (3.69 Mt). A statistically significant correlation is observed between cross-country emission reductions and the stringency of mobility restriction policies. Due to the aggregated nature of the CMRs, we develop different scenarios linked to consumption, work, and lifestyle aspects. Global reductions are on the order of 1-3% (GHG), 1-2% (PM_2.5), 0.5-2.8% (SO₂), and 3-4% (NO_x). Our results can help support crucial decision making in the post-COVID world, with quantified information about how direct and indirect consequences of mobility changes benefit the environment.