Progression to malignancy in oral potentially malignant disorders: a retrospective study of 5,036 patients in Ontario, Canada

Abstract

Objectives: Determine the rate of malignant transformation (MT) of oral potentially malignant disorders (OPMDs) and risk factors for transformation.

Study design: The OPMD database (2001-2015) from 2 biopsy services in Ontario, Canada, was linked to the Ontario Cancer Registry to determine the rate of progression to oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC). Clinical and histologic features of progressed and non-progressed cases were compared to determine risk factors for progression.

Results: The MT rate was 6.4% (322/5,036 cases). The mean time for cancer development was 51.2 months. 33.6% of cases (107/322) progressed after over 60 months. The risk of cancer increased with age and was higher in non-smokers. The MT rate was highest in the tongue (11.4%), followed by the floor of mouth (7.1%) and gingiva (6.5%). Histologic grade was associated with progression to cancer (P < .0001). Atypical verrucous-papillary lesions with no or mild dysplasia predominantly affected older patients' gingiva, and the progression rate was significantly higher than conventional mild dysplasia (9.2% vs 3.2%, P = .0002).

Conclusions: Our population-based retrospective study showed that <10% of OPMDs progressed to cancer, which could take many years. Atypical papillary-verrucous proliferation without high-grade dysplasia is a subtype of OPMD requiring further study.