COVID-19-related financial scarcity is associated with greater delay discounting but not probability discounting

Abstract

Prior studies suggest that scarcity increases delay discounting (devaluation of delayed outcomes) and disturbs other decision-making processes. Evidence on the effect of COVID-19 on delay discounting is mixed. Also, no study has examined the effect of COVID-19-related scarcity on probability discounting (devaluation of probabilistic outcomes). The goal of the study was to examine cross-sectional associations between financial impact during the COVID-19 pandemic, delay discounting, and probability discounting. During April 2020, 1012 participants with low income were recruited on Amazon Mechanical Turk and completed measures of delay and probability discounting, perceived COVID-19-related financial impacts, and food security. Regression analyses indicate that compared to those with no COVID-19-related financial impacts, those with severe COVID-19-related financial impacts had greater delay discounting of money and greater delay discounting of a grocery gift card. Also, greater food insecurity in the past month was associated with greater delay discounting of a grocery gift card but not delay discounting of money. Perceived COVID-19 related financial impact was not associated with probability discounting. Combined with laboratory experiments, this study provides additional support for the idea that feelings of scarcity may increase delay discounting. However, as this study was observational, no assumptions of causality should be made about the specific effect of COVID-19 on delay discounting.

Keywords: Delay discounting; Food security; Income shock; Probability discounting; Scarcity; Stress.