The heterogeneous driving forces behind carbon emissions change in 30 selective emerging economies

Shuping Li; Can Cui; Jing Meng; Yuan Li; Yuli Shan; Weichen Zhao; Priti Parikh; Jiawei Yao; Dabo Guan

doi:10.1016/j.patter.2023.100760

The heterogeneous driving forces behind carbon emissions change in 30 selective emerging economies

Patterns (N Y). 2023 May 30;4(7):100760. doi: 10.1016/j.patter.2023.100760. eCollection 2023 Jul 14.

Authors

Shuping Li¹, Can Cui², Jing Meng³, Yuan Li^{1

3}, Yuli Shan⁴, Weichen Zhao³, Priti Parikh³, Jiawei Yao⁵, Dabo Guan^{2

3}

Affiliations

¹ Institute of Blue and Green Development, Weihai Institute of Interdisciplinary Research, Shandong University, Weihai 264209, China.
² Department of Earth System Sciences, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100080, China.
³ The Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction, University College London, London WC1E 7HB, UK.
⁴ School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK.
⁵ College of Architecture and Urban Planning, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China.

Abstract

Emerging economies are predicted to be future emission hotspots due to expected levels of urbanization and industrialization, and their CO₂ emissions are receiving more scrutiny. However, the driving forces underlying dynamic change in emissions are poorly understood, despite their crucial role in developing targeted mitigating pathways. We firstly compile energy-related emissions of 30 selective emerging economies from 2010 to 2018. Then, three growth patterns of emissions in these economies have been identified through emission data, which imply different low-carbon pathways. Most emerging economies saw an increase of varying degrees in emissions, driven by economic growth and partly offset by better energy efficiency and improvements in energy mixes. Furthermore, the industrial structure was another factor that slowed emissions, especially in Latin America and the Caribbean. Our research contributes to the heterogeneous exploration of CO₂ emissions produced by energy among sectors and the creation of low-carbon development pathways in emerging economies.

Keywords: CO2 emissions; emerging economies; low-carbon pathways.