Motivated by the 2022 worldwide Monkeypox (MPox) outbreak, a compartmental model is proposed to predict the evolution of the disease. Numerous models have been proposed for infectious diseases so far, although the number of variables makes it difficult to establish causation relations between individual factors and transmission rates. In order to evaluate the reaction of susceptible people to avoid infection during the outbreak, the rate of transmission is modeled through a unique phenomenological probabilistic approach, allowing the expression of the rate of generation of new cases in terms of two characteristics of the susceptible group: the frequency of sexual encounters and the probability of transmission given that there is a sexual encounter. Transmission rates are obtained and compared for the U.S. and several other countries. Results show reductions of up to 71% in the transmissibility parameter, which may be combined with variations in the frequency of sexual encounters (obtained through behavioral research) to determine the changes in the probability of transmission during an outbreak in a much more convenient way than current alternatives. This framework presents a valuable tool to health authorities in the understanding of future sexually transmissible disease outbreaks.
© 2023 The Authors.