Buchanania cochinchinensis (Lour.) M.R. Almedia habitat exhibited robust adaptability to diverse socioeconomic scenarios in eastern India

Abstract

One of the greatest challenges to ecosystems is the rapidity of climate change, and their ability to adjust swiftly will be constrained. Climate change will disrupt the ecological balances, causing species to track suitable habitats for survival. Consequently, understanding the species' response to climate change is crucial for its conservation and management, and for enhancing biodiversity through effective management. This research intends to examine the response of the vulnerable Buchanania cochinchinensis species to climate change. We modeled the potential suitable habitats of B. cochinchinensis for the present and future climatic scenario proxies based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP), i.e. SSP126, 245, 370 and 585. Maxent was used to simulate the potential habitats of B. cochinchinensis. The study found that ~28,313 km² (~10.7% of the study area) was a potentially suitable habitat of B. cochinchinensis for the current scenario. The majority of the suitable habitat area ~25,169 km² occurred in the central and southern parts of the study area. The future projection shows that the suitable habitat to largely increase in the range of 10.5-20% across all the SSPs, with a maximum gain of ~20% for SSP 126. The mean temperature of the wettest quarter (Bio_08) was the most influential contributing variable in limiting the distribution of B. cochinchinensis. The majority of the suitable habitat area occurred in the vegetation landscape. The study shows a southward shifting of B. cochinchinensis habitat by 2050. The phytosociological analysis determined B. cochinchinensis as Shorea robusta's primary associate. Our research provides significant insight into the prospective distribution scenario of B. cochinchinensis habitat and its response to diverse socioeconomic scenarios, and offers a solid foundation for management of this extremely important species.

Keywords: Buchanania cochinchinensis; Climate change; MaxEnt; Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs); Suitable habitat.