Positive Circumferential Resection Margin in Rectal Cancer Is a Robust Predictor of Poor Long-term Prognosis With Clinicopathological Bias Between Groups Compensated by Propensity-score Matching Analysis

Abstract

Background/aim: Circumferential resection margin (CRM) is the most reliable predictor of local and distant recurrence in locally-advanced rectal cancer (LARC). The present study was conducted to compare the long-term outcomes between CRM (+) and (-) groups using propensity-score (PS) matching analysis to compensate for bias between groups.

Patients and methods: Of 563 consecutive patients with Stage II/III rectal cancer who were treated surgically with curative-intent at Juntendo University Hospital between Jan 1989 and Mar 2018, 412 patients were enrolled retrospectively in the study. The patients were divided into a CRM (+) group (n=21; 5.1%) and a CRM (-) group (n=391; 94.9%).

Results: In the entire cohort, recurrence-free survival (RFS), local recurrence-free survival (LRFS), non-local recurrence-free survival (NLRFS), and cancer-specific survival (CSS) were significantly worse among patients in the CRM (+) group compared with those in the CRM (-) group. Univariate analysis demonstrated patients in the CRM (+) group had significantly larger primary tumors (p=0.02), more frequently had open surgery (p=0.009), had an abdominoperineal resection (APR) procedure (p=0.01) and a T4 primary tumor (p<0.0001). After PS matching analysis, in the propensity-matched cohort, RFS, LRFS, NLRFS and CSS were significantly worse among patients in the CRM (+) group compared with those in the CRM (-) group.

Conclusion: PS matching analysis demonstrated that RFS, LRFS, NLRFS, and CSS were significantly worse among patients in the CRM (+) group compared with those in the CRM (-) group. The present results indicate that CRM (+) is a robust predictor of long-term outcome of LARC, independent of tumor size.

Keywords: Circumferential resection margin (CRM); cancer-specific survival; local recurrence-free survival; prognosis; propensity-score matching analysis; rectal cancer; recurrence-free survival.