Trends in air pollutants emissions in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and its surrounding areas under different socioeconomic scenarios

Ke Jiang; Ran Xing; Zhihan Luo; Jin Li; Yatai Men; Huizhong Shen; Guofeng Shen; Shu Tao

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165745

Trends in air pollutants emissions in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and its surrounding areas under different socioeconomic scenarios

Sci Total Environ. 2023 Nov 15:899:165745. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165745. Epub 2023 Jul 24.

Authors

Ke Jiang¹, Ran Xing¹, Zhihan Luo¹, Jin Li¹, Yatai Men¹, Huizhong Shen², Guofeng Shen³, Shu Tao⁴

Affiliations

¹ Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China.
² School of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen 518055, China.
³ Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China; Institute of Carbon Neutrality, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China; School of Ecology and Environment, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 45001, China. Electronic address: gfshen12@pku.edu.cn.
⁴ Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China; Institute of Carbon Neutrality, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China; School of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen 518055, China.

PMID: 37495127
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165745

Abstract

The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) and its surrounding areas are undergoing rapid changes in socioeconomic conditions, activity sectors, and emission levels. These changes underscore the significance of conducting local environmental assessments in the future and generating air pollutant emission forecasts necessary for effective evaluation. Current pollutants emissions pathways exhibit regional limitation since their based historical inventory could not accurately reflect the emission characteristics in QTP. This study constructed a high spatial resolution (0.1° × 0.1°) atmospheric pollutant emissions dataset in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and its surrounding Areas (QTPA) based on updated emission inventory and various socioeconomic scenarios. We found that the pollutant emissions levels are distinct among different social development scenarios, with SSP3-7.0 demonstrating the highest magnitude of emissions. Regional and sectoral contributions exhibit substantial variations. Notably, solid fuel combustion originating from residential sectors in Northeast India and open fires in Myanmar are identified as high-density sources of PM_2.5 emissions. Current pollutant emission patterns in the QTPA are more akin to SSP2-4.5, however, specific regions such as Qinghai and Tibet have exhibited more pronounced trends of emission reduction. The comparison with previous datasets reveals that the predicted pollutant emissions in this study are lower than Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (SMIP) dataset but higher than Asian-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) dataset due to the revised inventory data and model variations, in which the latter might be the main obstacle to accurate emissions prediction.

Keywords: Air pollutants; Emission prediction; Qinghai-Tibet Plateau; Socioeconomic scenarios.