Increased incidence of congenital hypothyroidism in China: An analysis of 119 million screened newborns

Abstract

Despite the lack of nationwide epidemiological studies, congenital hypothyroidism (CH) incidence in China has increased. We aimed to evaluate the trends of CH and the possible reasons behind them. Data from screened newborns from the Chinese Newborn Screening Information System from 2012 to 2019 was collected. We applied the Bayesian hierarchical Poisson regression model and meta-analysis to estimate incidence or proportion over the years. The estimated CH incidence increased from 4.01 per 10,000 births in 2012 to 5.77 per 10,000 births in 2019. The average annual growth rate (ARG) of CH incidence for all provinces varied from 0.59 to 20.96%. The most rapid rise in incidence was observed in cases with an initial thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) concentration of < 10 mIU/L. The meta-analysis results showed that the proportion of permanent CH increased by 0.024% (95%CI: 0.011%, 0.037%) annually. Each 1 mIU/L decrease in TSH cutoff value was associated with a 2.96% increase in CH incidence. In the same period, the proportion of premature CH cases increased from 6.60 to 9.10%, which was much higher than the increase in preterm births. A significant relationship was not found between provincial growth rates in screening coverage and provincial baseline incidences of CH. Conclusion: CH incidence has substantially increased in China. The slight adjustment of the TSH cutoff value and increasing preterm birth rate contribute to such a trend; however, the contribution is limited. What is Known: • An uptrend in congenital hypothyroidism (CH) incidence has been reported in many European and American countries in the last two decades; however, no studies have been conducted in China to explain the increased CH incidence. • We provide a detailed epidemiological report on the trends of CH during 2012-2019 in China, with an attempt to explore the reasons behind it. What is New: • This first-ever national-wide epidemiological report in China showed an uptrend in CH incidence with variations over regions and CH subtypes. The mild lowering of TSH cutoff values and the increasing preterm birth rate contributed to this uptrend.

Keywords: Congenital hypothyroidism; Incidence; Neonatal screening; Preterm.