[The impact of extended waiting time on tumor regression after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy for locally advanced rectal cancer]

Abstract

Objective: To investigate the influence of extending the waiting time on tumor regression after neoadjuvant chemoradiology (nCRT) in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). Methods: Clinicopathological data from 728 LARC patients who completed nCRT treatment at the First Affiliated Hospital, Naval Medical University from January 2012 to December 2021 were collected for retrospective analysis. The primary research endpoint was the sustained complete response (SCR). There were 498 males and 230 females, with an age (M(IQR)) of 58 (15) years (range: 22 to 89 years). Logistic regression models were used to explore whether waiting time was an independent factor affecting SCR. Curve fitting was used to represent the relationship between the cumulative occurrence rate of SCR and the waiting time. The patients were divided into a conventional waiting time group (4 to <12 weeks, n=581) and an extended waiting time group (12 to<20 weeks, n=147). Comparisons regarding tumor regression, organ preservation, and surgical conditions between the two groups were made using the t test, Wilcoxon rank sum test, or χ² test as appropriate. The Log-rank test was used to elucidate the survival discrepancies between the two groups. Results: The SCR rate of all patients was 21.6% (157/728). The waiting time was an independent influencing factor for SCR, with each additional day corresponding to an OR value of 1.010 (95%CI: 1.001 to 1.020, P=0.031). The cumulative rate of SCR occurrence gradually increased with the extension of waiting time, with the fastest increase between the 10^th week. The SCR rate in the extended waiting time group was higher (27.9%(41/147) vs. 20.0%(116/581), χ²=3.901, P=0.048), and the organ preservation rate during the follow-up period was higher (21.1%(31/147) vs. 10.7%(62/581), χ²=10.510, P=0.001). The 3-year local recurrence/regrowth-free survival rates were 94.0% and 91.1%, the 3-year disease-free survival rates were 76.6% and 75.4%, and the 3-year overall survival rates were 95.6% and 92.2% for the conventional and extended waiting time groups, respectively, with no statistical differences in local recurrence/regrowth-free survival, disease-free survival and overall survival between the two groups (χ²=1.878, P=0.171; χ²=0.078, P=0.780; χ²=1.265, P=0.261). Conclusions: An extended waiting time is conducive to tumor regression, and extending the waiting time to 12 to <20 weeks after nCRT can improve the SCR rate and organ preservation rate, without increasing the difficulty of surgery or altering the oncological outcomes of patients.