The prediction model of the short-term outcome in elderly heart failure patients

Abstract

This study was designed to investigate the effect of the comprehensive geriatric assessment on the short-term prognosis of the elderly heart failure patients (EHFP), analyze the relevant risk factors, and construct an effective risk prediction model. According to the selection and exclusion criteria, 617 patients were filtered from 800 patients from the cadre ward database of the first Hospital of Jilin University. The EHFP were randomly divided into the model group (432 cases) and the validation group (185 cases). A retrospective study on the general clinical data of patients in the model group was conducted to analyze the risk factors associated with the short-term outcomes of EHFP. Based on the risk factors, the risk prediction model was established and validated through the validation group. In the model group, the following independent risk factors were identified for the short-term outcomes in EHFP in the light of univariate logistic and cox regression analysis: female (β = 0.989, OR = 1.277, 95% CI: 1.090-1.847, P = 0.024), age (65-75 years, β = 0.654, OR = 2.320, 95% CI: 1.135-3.136, P = 0.012; 75-85 years, β = 1.123, OR = 3.159, 95% CI: 1.532-5.189, P = 0.001; age > 85 years old, β = 1.513, OR = 4.895, 95% CI: 1.866-979, P = 0.001), frailty (β = 1.015, OR = 2.761, 95% CI: 1.097-6.945, P = 0.031), malnutrition (β = 1.271, OR = 3.560, 95% CI: 1.122-11.325, P = 0.002), and EF≦40% (β = 1.250, OR = 3.498, 95% CI: 1.898-6.447, P = 0.001). The simple risk prediction score was set up in line with the five risk factors, including range (1-7), the area under ROC curve (0.771, 95% CI: 0.723-0.819), and H-L test (P = 0.393), so patients were divided into the low-risk group (1-3) and the high-risk group (4-8). As a result, the number of EHFP in the high-risk group was significantly much more than that in the low-risk group (70.1% versus 29.9%, P < 0.001). Besides, the area under ROC curve (0.758, 95% CI: 0.682-0.835) and H-L test (P = 0.669) of the validation group indicated that this model could be a promising prediction model for the short-term outcomes of EHFP. Female, age, frailty, malnutrition, and EF ≦ 40% are independent risk factors for short-term outcomes of EHFP. The risk prediction model based on the five risk factors provided compelling clinic predictive value for the short-term prognosis of EHFP.

Keywords: Comprehensive geriatric assessment; Heart failure; Short-term outcome; The prediction model.