Due to a combination of lifestyle risk factors, the burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) has been increasing in China, affecting an estimated 330 million people. Environmental risk factors can exacerbate these risks or independently contribute to CVD. Ozone is an overlooked and invisible risk factor, and it plays a significant role in the development of CVD. Our study provides a novel quantification of the ozone-attributable CVD mortality burden based on daily maximum 8-h average ozone concentration during May to October (6mDMA8) in Chinese adults in 2050, projected under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 585 and 126, and using the updated WHO air quality guideline level. The study also considers the contributions made by changes in ozone exposure, population aging, population size, and baseline death rates of CVD between 2019 and 2050. While adopting a sustainable and green pathway (SSP 126) can reduce the projected magnitude of premature CVD deaths to 359,200 in 2050, it may not be sufficient to reduce the CVD mortality burden significantly. Therefore, it is crucial to implement strategies for stricter ozone control and reducing the baseline death rate of CVD to mitigate the impacts of ozone on Chinese adults.
Keywords: cardiovascular disease; climate change; disease burden; environmental risk; premature deaths.