Effectiveness of previous infection-induced and vaccine-induced protection against hospitalisation due to omicron BA subvariants in older adults: a test-negative, case-control study in Quebec, Canada

Abstract

Background: Older adults (aged ≥60 years) were prioritised for COVID-19 booster vaccination due to severe outcome risk, but the risk for this group is also affected by previous SARS-CoV-2 infection and vaccination. We estimated vaccine effectiveness against omicron-associated hospitalisation in older adults by previously documented infection, time since last immunological event, and age group.

Methods: This was a population-based test-negative case-control study done in Quebec, Canada, during BA.1 dominant (December, 2021, to March, 2022), BA.2 dominant (April to June, 2022), and BA.4/5 dominant (July to November, 2022) periods using provincial laboratory, immunisation, hospitalisation, and chronic disease surveillance databases. We included older adults (aged ≥60 years) with symptoms associated with COVID-19 who were tested for SARS-CoV-2 in acute-care hospitals. Cases were defined as patients who were hospitalised for COVID-19 within 14 days after testing positive; controls were patients who tested negative. Analyses spanned 3-14 months after last vaccine dose or previous infection. Logistic regression models compared COVID-19 hospitalisation risk by mRNA vaccine dose and previous infection versus unvaccinated and infection-naive participants.

Findings: Between Dec 26, 2021, and Nov 5, 2022, we included 174 819 specimens (82 870 [47·4%] from men and 91 949 [52·6%] from women; from 8455 cases and 166 364 controls), taken from 2951 cases and 48 724 controls in the BA.1 period; 1897 cases and 41 702 controls in the BA.2 period; and 3607 cases and 75 938 controls in the BA.4/5 period. In participants who were infection naive, vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation improved with dose number, consistent with a shorter median time since last dose, but decreased with more recent omicron subvariants. Four-dose vaccine effectiveness was 96% (95% CI 93-98) during the BA.1 period, 84% (81-87) during the BA.2 period, and 68% (63-72) during the BA.4/5 period. Regardless of dose number (two to five doses) or timing since previous infection, hybrid protection was more than 90%, persisted for at least 6-8 months, and did not decline with age.

Interpretation: Older adults with both previous SARS-CoV-2 infection and two or more vaccine doses appear to be well protected for a prolonged period against hospitalisation due to omicron subvariants, including BA.4/5. Ensuring that older adults who are infection naive remain up to date with vaccination might reduce COVID-19 hospitalisations most efficiently.

Funding: Ministère de la Santé et des Services Sociaux du Québec.

Translation: For the French translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.