Trends in the prevalence of elevated cardiovascular risk and the control of its risk factors Among US adults, 2001-2020

Abstract

Background: An accurate assessment of current trends in cardiovascular risks could inform public health policy. This study aims to determine 20-year trends in the prevalence of elevated cardiovascular risk and its risk factors' control among US adults.

Methods: In this serial cross-sectional analysis of 23,594 adults, aged 40-79 years, without clinical atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey from 2001 to 2020, we calculated the prevalence of elevated cardiovascular risk (10-year ASCVD risk ≥ 7.5%) for all participants and subgroups with their risk factors controlled for diabetes, hypertension, or dyslipidemia.

Results: The age- and sex-adjusted prevalence of elevated cardiovascular risk slightly decreased from 41.5% (95% CI, 39.7-43.3%) in 2001-2004 to 38.6% (95% CI, 36.1-41.1%) in 2017-2020 (P for trend = 0.169) while the respective sex-adjusted prevalence significantly increased from 34.4% (95% CI, 32.8-36.0%) to 39.5% (95% CI, 37.0-42.0%; P for trend <0.001). Sex and race continued to show disparities in cardiovascular risk. Furthermore, a worsening disparity in age- and sex-adjusted prevalence of elevated cardiovascular risk between young and old and a narrowing gap among different education and poverty index levels (all P trend for interaction <0.05). Differential decomposition analysis found that demographic changes (primarily population aging) led to an 8.8% increase in the prevalence of elevated cardiovascular risk from 2001 to 2004 to 2017-2020, while risk factor control led to a 3.8% decrease. The rate of individuals receiving treatment for diabetes, hypertension, or dyslipidemia increased significantly between 2001 and 2020 (all P for trend <0.05). The rate of participants with hypertension who achieved blood pressure under 130/80 mmHg and those with dyslipidemia who achieved a non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol level under 130 mg/dl increased significantly (all P for trend <0.001).

Conclusions: There is a slight reduction in the prevalence of age- and sex-adjusted elevated cardiovascular risk among US adults without clinical ASCVD between 2001 and 2020, while the sex-adjusted prevalence significantly increased. The decrease in elevated cardiovascular risk prevalence was mainly attributed to risk factor control, while demographic changes contributed to an increase.

Keywords: cardiovascular risk; national health and nutrition examination survey (NHANES); primary prevention; risk factor profiles; secular trends.