Aeolian disaster risk evaluation in the African Sahel

Zuowei Yang; Xin Gao; Jiaqiang Lei

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165462

Aeolian disaster risk evaluation in the African Sahel

Sci Total Environ. 2023 Nov 15:899:165462. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165462. Epub 2023 Jul 13.

Authors

Zuowei Yang¹, Xin Gao², Jiaqiang Lei¹

Affiliations

¹ State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 818 South Beijing Road, Urumqi 830011, Xinjiang, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China.
² State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 818 South Beijing Road, Urumqi 830011, Xinjiang, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China. Electronic address: gaoxin@ms.xjb.ac.cn.

PMID: 37451450
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165462

Abstract

The Sahel is facing a serious environmental crisis due to aeolian disaster that has seriously affected the local development and survival of residents. Thus, evaluating the aeolian disaster risk levels and their variation in the Sahel is important. This study established an optimal model by evaluating the applicability of different models in the aeolian disaster risk determination in the Sahel. Using this model, the spatiotemporal changes in the risk subsystem of aeolian disaster (hazard, sensitivity, vulnerability, and restorability) and the aeolian disaster risk in the Sahel from 2000 to 2020 were analyzed. Based on this analysis, the impact of climate change and human activities on the aeolian disaster risk in the Sahel was evaluated. Results revealed that the variable fuzzy recognition (VFR) based on the aeolian disaster risk index (ADRI) model had the highest accuracy, reaching 89.72 %. The middle of the Sahel, located in the desert-grassland transition zone, exhibited a high hazard, sensitivity, and vulnerability, rendering it highly susceptible to aeolian disaster. The proportion of areas with very low and very high aeolian disaster risk levels decreased from 2000 to 2020, while those with low and high levels increased, and the change in moderate risk level areas remained relatively stable. Areas of low, moderate, and high risk are more sensitive to climate change and human activities and are subjected to greater pressure for change. Human activities were the main factor for the change of ADRI in the Sahel, accounting for 69.74 and 58.19 % of the increased and decreased areas of ADRI, respectively. This study evaluated the level of aeolian disaster risk in the Sahel and identified the main driving factors, providing a reference for Sahel countries to better implement the Green Great Wall (GGW) program in Africa, thereby mitigating the adverse effects of aeolian disaster.

Keywords: Aeolian disaster risk index; Aeolian disaster risk index model; Great Green Wall; Sahel countries; Variable fuzzy recognition.