Fertility intentions to have a second or third child among the childbearing-age population in Central China under China's three-child policy: A cross-sectional study

Abstract

Background: On May 31, 2021, the Chinese authorities announced that couples can have up to three children, aiming to stimulate a rise in fertility levels. However, there is limited research on second and third birth intentions of the childbearing-age population under China's three-child policy, and the existing results are inconsistent.

Methods: A cross-sectional survey was performed in Central China from June to August 2022. A total of 13 479 respondents aged 20-49 were enrolled in the study through a multi-stage sampling method. Data on the intentions to have a second or third child were collected using anonymized questionnaires. Descriptive statistics were performed to assess fertility intentions. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to assess the associations between fertility intentions and the related factors.

Results: Among families with a single child, 29.7% (1444 / 4859) of the respondents intended to have a second child, while among two-child families, 10.6% (750 / 7056) respondents intended to have a third child. Overall, participants indicated that the ideal number of children was 1.85 ± 0.52. The age-specific fertility intentions of the one-child families were always higher than those of two-child families; however, based on couples' age groups, the number of ideal children reported by two-child families was always higher than that of one-child families. Fertility intentions were influenced by the respondents' gender, age, residence, marital status, educational level, average working time, childcare support, marital satisfaction, accessibility of educational resources, health condition of both spouses, loan situation, size of living house and the gender of the first child or second child.

Conclusions: The general prevalence of the second and third birth intention of the childbearing-age population in Central China is not high. To increase the birth rate, it is necessary to create a favourable fertility context and offer supportive measures.