How does environmental regulation affect carbon productivity? The role of green technology progress and pollution transfer

Abstract

This empirical study examines the impact of environmental regulations on carbon productivity under varying conditions using panel data from Chinese provinces from 2011 to 2019. Prior research has reported inconsistent results regarding the relationships between these variables. We developed a spatial Durbin model (SDM) and tested the non-linear effects of environmental regulation on carbon productivity from a spatial linkage perspective. The results demonstrate a U-shaped curve representing the local-neighborhood effect of environmental regulations on carbon productivity. This curve is further dissected into two components: the average direct effect (ADE) and the average indirect effect (AIE). Furthermore, the findings indicate that green technology progress and pollution transfer act as moderating factors in shaping the U-shaped curve. Green technological progress has steepened the U-shape curve, whereas pollution transfer has flattened it. Based on these findings, we propose three recommendations for the formulation of environmental regulation policies.

Keywords: Carbon productivity; Environmental regulation; Green technology progress; Pollution transfer; Spatial durbin model.