The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-Shandong Region (BTHS Region) is a crucial area for China to achieve synergy between pollution reduction and carbon emissions reduction. The demand for coordinated emissions reduction through source control measures such as energy transition and industrial restructuring are becoming increasingly necessary owing to the limited emissions reductions potential of end-of-pipe control measures. An assessment of the emissions reductions potential through strengthening the end-of-pipe control in the BTHS Region, as well as the environmental and health co-benefits from accelerated energy transition and industrial restructuring, was conducted using scenario simulation analysis based on the REACH model. The results showed that the rapid implementation of the best available end-of-pipe control technologies in the BTHS Region would result in 3.3 μg·m-3 reduction in PM2.5 concentration in 2035, but this would not be sufficient to achieve the PM2.5 concentration control targets. Accelerating the energy transition and the industrial restructuring are necessary for the BTHS Region to achieve air quality standards, which would reduce the PM2.5 concentrations by 6.3 μg·m-3 in 2035. The environmental and health co-benefits brought by the accelerated transition could partially or entirely offset the additional socio-economic cost (compared to that of the current policy efforts) of approximately 0.9%-2.5% of the total regional GDP in achieving the PM2.5 concentration control target paid by the four provinces.
Keywords: PM2.5; carbon emissions; co-benefits; conventional air pollutants emissions; energy transition; industrial restructuring; integrated assessment model.