The defense of Shangri-La: Protecting isolated communities by periodic infection screening in the worst future pandemic

Abstract

In the worst future pandemic, effective vaccines and medicines could be unavailable for a long time. In such circumstances, it is necessary to evaluate whether a periodic screening can protect isolated communities and critical facilities and avoid a complete shutdown. In this study, we introduced an epidemiological model that included the essential parameters of infection transmission and screening. With varying parameters, we studied the dynamics of viral infection in the isolated communities. In the scenario with a periodic infection screening once per 3 days and a viral basic reproduction number 3.0, >85% of the infection waves have a duration <7 days and the infection size in each of the waves is generally <4 individuals when the efficiency of infection discovery is 0.9 in the screening. When the period of screening was elongated to once per 7 days, the cases of infection dramatically increased to 5 folds of that mentioned previously. Further, with a weak discovery efficiency of 0.7 and the aforementioned low screening frequency, the spread of infection would be out of control. Our study suggests that frequent periodic screening is capable of controlling a future epidemic in isolated communities without other measures.

Keywords: Computational model; Epidemic control; Expected recovery time; Population wide screening.