Temporal trends of breast cancer burden in the Western Pacific Region from 1990 to 2044: Implications from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Bing Wu; Ye Li; Baoguo Shi; Xiyu Zhang; Yongqiang Lai; Fuqiang Cui; Xiaodan Bai; Wenjing Xiang; Guihong Geng; Bei Liu; Mingli Jiao; Qunhong Wu; Huiying Yang; Chenxi Zhang; Xinwei Liu; Yulu Tian; Hongyu Li

doi:10.1016/j.jare.2023.07.003

Temporal trends of breast cancer burden in the Western Pacific Region from 1990 to 2044: Implications from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

J Adv Res. 2024 May:59:189-199. doi: 10.1016/j.jare.2023.07.003. Epub 2023 Jul 6.

Authors

Bing Wu¹, Ye Li², Baoguo Shi³, Xiyu Zhang⁴, Yongqiang Lai¹, Fuqiang Cui⁵, Xiaodan Bai⁶, Wenjing Xiang⁶, Guihong Geng⁶, Bei Liu⁵, Mingli Jiao¹, Qunhong Wu⁷, Huiying Yang⁸, Chenxi Zhang¹, Xinwei Liu¹, Yulu Tian¹, Hongyu Li¹

Affiliations

¹ Research Center of Health Policy and Management, School of Health Management, Harbin Medical University, Harbin, Heilongjiang, China.
² Research Center of Health Policy and Management, School of Health Management, Harbin Medical University, Harbin, Heilongjiang, China. Electronic address: liye8459@163.com.
³ Department of Economics, School of Economics, Minzu University of China, Beijing, China. Electronic address: bgshi2008@hotmail.com.
⁴ Research Center of Health Policy and Management, School of Health Management, Harbin Medical University, Harbin, Heilongjiang, China; Department of Laboratorial Science and Technology, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, China.
⁵ Department of Laboratorial Science and Technology, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, China.
⁶ Department of Economics, School of Economics, Minzu University of China, Beijing, China.
⁷ Department of Social Medicine, School of Health Management, Harbin Medical University, Harbin, Heilongjiang, China.
⁸ The Second Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University, Harbin, Heilongjiang, China.

PMID: 37422280
DOI: 10.1016/j.jare.2023.07.003

Abstract

Introduction: Breast cancer (BC) is a malignant disease that occurs worldwide and poses serious health burden.

Objectives: To assess the prevalence of BC burden in the Western Pacific region (WPR) from 1990 to 2019, and to predict trends from 2020 to 2044. To analyze the driving factors and put forward the region-oriented improvement.

Methods: Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, BC cases, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) cases, age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized death rate (ASDR), and age-standardized DALYs rate in WPR from 1990 to 2019 was obtained and analysed. Age-period-cohort (APC) model was used to analyze age, period, and cohort effects in BC, and Bayesian APC (BAPC) was used to predict trends over the next 25 years.

Results: In conclusion, BC incidence and deaths in the WPR have increased rapidly over the past 30 years and are expected to continue to increase between 2020 and 2044. Among behavioral and metabolic factors, high body-mass index was the main risk factor for BC mortality in middle-income countries, whereas alcohol use was the main risk factor in Japan. Age is a key factor in the development of BC, with 40 years being the critical point. Incidence trends coincide with the course of economic development.

Conclusions: The BC burden remains an essential public health issue in the WPR and will increase substantially in the future. More efforts should be made in middle-income countries to prompt the health behavior and minimize the burden of BC because these nations accounts for the majority of BC burden in the WPR.

Keywords: Age-period-cohort; Breast cancer; Global burden of disease; Western Pacific Region.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

Adult
Aged
Aged, 80 and over
Bayes Theorem
Breast Neoplasms* / epidemiology
Disability-Adjusted Life Years
Female
Global Burden of Disease*
Humans
Incidence
Middle Aged
Prevalence
Quality-Adjusted Life Years
Risk Factors