Blooms of blue-green algae (BGA) threaten drinking water safety and ecosystems worldwide. Understanding mechanisms and driving factors that promote BGA proliferation is crucial for effective freshwater management. This study tested the response of BGA growth to environmental variations driven by nutrients (N and P), N:P ratios, and flow regime depending on the influence of the Asian monsoon intensity and identified the critical regulatory factors in a temperate drinking-water reservoir, using weekly interval samplings collected during 2017-2022. The hydrodynamic and underwater light conditions experienced significant changes in summers due to high inflows and outflows associated with intense rainfalls, and these conditions strongly influenced the proliferation of BGA and total phytoplankton biomass (as estimated by chlorophyll-a [CHL-a]) during summer monsoons. However, the intense monsoon resulted in the post-monsoon blooms of BGA. The monsoon-induced phosphorus enrichment, facilitated through soil washing and runoff, was crucial in promoting phytoplankton blooms in early post-monsoon (September). Thus, the monomodal phytoplankton peak was evident in the system, compared to the bimodal peaks in North American and European lakes. Strong water column stability in the weak monsoon years depressed phytoplankton growth and BGA, suggesting the importance of the intensity of monsoon. The low N:P ratios and longer water residence time increased BGA abundance. The predictive model of BGA abundance accounted for the variations largely (Mallows' Cp = 0.39, adjusted R2 = 0.55, p < 0.001) by dissolved phosphorus, N:P ratios, CHL-a, and inflow volume. Overall, this study suggests that monsoon intensity was the key triggering factor regulating the interannual BGA variations and facilitated the post-monsoon blooms through increased nutrient availability.
Keywords: Asian monsoon; Blooms; Cyanobacteria; Microcystis; Nutrient regimes; Predictive model.
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