Machine learning-based prediction of surgical benefit in borderline resectable and locally advanced pancreatic cancer

Abstract

Introduction: Surgery represents a primary therapeutic approach for borderline resectable and locally advanced pancreatic cancer (BR/LAPC). However, BR/LAPC lesions exhibit high heterogeneity and not all BR/LAPC patients who undergo surgery can derive beneficial outcomes. The present study aims to employ machine learning (ML) algorithms to identify those who would obtain benefits from the primary tumor surgery.

Methods: We retrieved clinical data of patients with BR/LAPC from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and classified them into surgery and non-surgery groups based on primary tumor surgery status. To eliminate confounding factors, propensity score matching (PSM) was employed. We hypothesized that patients who underwent surgery and had a longer median cancer-specific survival (CSS) than those who did not undergo surgery would certainly benefit from surgical intervention. Clinical and pathological features were utilized to construct six ML models, and model effectiveness was compared through measures such as the area under curve (AUC), calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA). We selected the best-performing algorithm (i.e., XGBoost) to predict postoperative benefits. The SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) approach was used to interpret the XGBoost model. Additionally, data from 53 Chinese patients prospectively collected was used for external validation of the model.

Results: According to the results of the tenfold cross-validation in the training cohort, the XGBoost model yielded the best performance (AUC = 0.823, 95%CI 0.707-0.938). The internal (74.3% accuracy) and external (84.3% accuracy) validation demonstrated the generalizability of the model. The SHAP analysis provided explanations independent of the model, highlighting important factors related to postoperative survival benefits in BR/LAPC, with age, chemotherapy, and radiation therapy being the top three important factors.

Conclusion: By integrating of ML algorithms and clinical data, we have established a highly efficient model to facilitate clinical decision-making and assist clinicians in selecting the population that would benefit from surgery.

Keywords: Borderline resectable pancreatic cancer; Locally advanced pancreatic cancer; Machine learning; Model prediction; Postoperative.