Background: Few large-scale, nationwide studies have assessed cause-specific mortality risks and burdens associated with temperature variability (TV).
Objective: To estimate associations between TV and cause-specific mortality and quantify the mortality burden in China.
Methods: Data on daily total and cause-specific mortality in 272 Chinese cities between 2013 and 2015 were recorded. TVs were computed as the standard deviations of daily minimum and maximum temperatures over a duration of 2 to 7 days. The time-series quasi-Poisson regression model with adjustment of the cumulative effects of daily mean temperature over the same duration was applied to evaluate the city-specific associations of TV and mortality. Then, we pooled the effect estimates using a random-effects meta-analysis and calculated the mortality burdens.
Results: Overall, TV showed significant and positive associations with total and cause-specific mortality. The TV-mortality associations were generally stronger when using longer durations. A 1 °C increase in TV at 0-7 days (TV0-7) was associated with a 0.79 % [95 % confidence interval (CI): 0.55 %, 0.96 %] increase in total mortality. Mortality fractions attributable to TV0-7 were 4.37 % for total causes, 4.75 % for overall cardiovascular disease, 4.37 % for coronary heart disease, 5.05 % for stroke, 8.28 % for ischaemic stroke, 1.08 % for haemorrhagic stroke, 6.93 % for respiratory disease, and 6.81 % for COPD, respectively. The mortality risk and burden were generally higher in the temperate monsoon zone, females, and elders.
Conclusion: This nationwide study indicated that TV was an independent risk factor of mortality, and could result in significant burden for main cardiorespiratory diseases.
Keywords: Cardiorespiratory diseases; Disease burden; Mortality; Temperature variability; Time-series study.
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