Tokyo's COVID-19: An urban perspective on factors influencing infection rates in a global city

Mehdi Alidadi; Ayyoob Sharifi; Daisuke Murakami

doi:10.1016/j.scs.2023.104743

Tokyo's COVID-19: An urban perspective on factors influencing infection rates in a global city

Sustain Cities Soc. 2023 Oct:97:104743. doi: 10.1016/j.scs.2023.104743. Epub 2023 Jun 28.

Authors

Mehdi Alidadi^{1

2}, Ayyoob Sharifi³, Daisuke Murakami⁴

Affiliations

¹ Centre for Urban Research, School of Global, Urban and Social Studies, RMIT University, Melbourne, Australia.
² Hiroshima University, Graduate School of Engineering and Advanced Science, Hiroshima, Japan.
³ Hiroshima University, The IDEC Institute and Network for Education and Research on Peace and Sustainability (NERPS), Hiroshima, Japan.
⁴ The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Department of Statistical Data Science, Tokyo, Japan.

Abstract

This research investigates the relationship between COVID-19 and urban factors in Tokyo. To understand the spread dynamics of COVID-19, the study examined 53 urban variables (including population density, socio-economic status, housing conditions, transportation, and land use) in 53 municipalities of Tokyo prefecture. Using spatial models, the study analysed the patterns and predictors of COVID-19 infection rates. The findings revealed that COVID-19 cases were concentrated in central Tokyo, with clustering levels decreasing after the outbreaks. COVID-19 infection rates were higher in areas with a greater density of retail stores, restaurants, health facilities, workers in those sectors, public transit use, and telecommuting. However, household crowding was negatively associated. The study also found that telecommuting rate and housing crowding were the strongest predictors of COVID-19 infection rates in Tokyo, according to the regression model with time-fixed effects, which had the best validation and stability. This study's results could be useful for researchers and policymakers, particularly because Japan and Tokyo have unique circumstances, as there was no mandatory lockdown during the pandemic.

Keywords: COVID-19; Cities; Spread dynamics; Tokyo; Urban planning; Urban variables.