The ability to predict the size of information cascades in online social networks is crucial for various applications, including decision-making and viral marketing. However, traditional methods either rely on complicated time-varying features that are challenging to extract from multilingual and cross-platform content, or on network structures and properties that are often difficult to obtain. To address these issues, we conducted empirical research using data from two well-known social networking platforms, WeChat and Weibo. Our findings suggest that the information-cascading process is best described as an activate-decay dynamic process. Building on these insights, we developed an activate-decay (AD)-based algorithm that can accurately predict the long-term popularity of online content based solely on its early repost amount. We tested our algorithm using data from WeChat and Weibo, demonstrating that we could fit the evolution trend of content propagation and predict the longer-term dynamics of message forwarding from earlier data. We also discovered a close correlation between the peak forwarding amount of information and the total amount of dissemination. Finding the peak of the amount of information dissemination can significantly improve the prediction accuracy of our model. Our method also outperformed existing baseline methods for predicting the popularity of information.
Keywords: cascade prediction; information cascade; information diffusion; online social network; popularity prediction.