Background: The study's purpose was to evaluate the performance of a five-type HPV mRNA test to predict cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or worse (CIN3+) during up to 12 years of follow-up.
Methods: Overall, 19,153 women were recruited by gynecologists and general practitioners in different parts of Norway between 2003 and 2004. The study population comprised 9582 women of these women, aged 25-69 years with normal cytology and a valid five-type HPV mRNA test at baseline. Follow-up for CIN3+ through 2015 was conducted in the Norwegian Cervical Cancer Screening Programme.
Results: The cumulative incidence of CIN3+ by baseline status for HPV mRNA-positive and mRNA-negative women were 20.8% and 1.1%, respectively (p < 0.001). Age did not affect the long-term ability of the HPV mRNA test to predict CIN3+ during follow-up.
Conclusion: The low long-term risk of CIN3+ among HPV mRNA-negative women and the high long-term risk among HPV mRNA-positive women strengthen the evidence that the five-type HPV mRNA test is an appropriate screening test for women of all ages. Our findings suggest that women with a negative result may extend the screening interval up to 10 years.
Keywords: CIN3+; HPV mRNA test; cervical cancer screening; screening.