A fractional-order mathematical model for malaria and COVID-19 co-infection dynamics

Adesoye Idowu Abioye; Olumuyiwa James Peter; Hammed Abiodun Ogunseye; Festus Abiodun Oguntolu; Tawakalt Abosede Ayoola; Asimiyu Olalekan Oladapo

doi:10.1016/j.health.2023.100210

A fractional-order mathematical model for malaria and COVID-19 co-infection dynamics

Healthc Anal (N Y). 2023 Dec:4:100210. doi: 10.1016/j.health.2023.100210. Epub 2023 Jun 21.

Authors

Adesoye Idowu Abioye^{1

2}, Olumuyiwa James Peter^{3

4}, Hammed Abiodun Ogunseye⁵, Festus Abiodun Oguntolu⁶, Tawakalt Abosede Ayoola⁷, Asimiyu Olalekan Oladapo⁷

Affiliations

¹ Department of Mathematics, University of Ilorin, Ilorin, Kwara State, Nigeria.
² Mathematics Unit, Department of General studies, Maritime Academy of Nigeria, Oron, Akwa-Ibom State, Nigeria.
³ Department of Mathematical and Computer Sciences, University of Medical Sciences, Ondo City, Ondo State, Nigeria.
⁴ Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Medical Sciences, Ondo City, Ondo State, Nigeria.
⁵ Department of Mathematics, University of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.
⁶ Department of Mathematics, Federal University of Technology, Minna, Niger State, Nigeria.
⁷ Department of Mathematical Sciences, Osun State University, Osogbo, Osun State, Nigeria.

Abstract

This study proposes a fractional-order mathematical model for malaria and COVID-19 co-infection using the Atangana-Baleanu Derivative. We explain the various stages of the diseases together in humans and mosquitoes, and we also establish the existence and uniqueness of the fractional order co-infection model solution using the fixed point theorem. We conduct the qualitative analysis along with an epidemic indicator, the basic reproduction number R0 of this model. We investigate the global stability at the disease and endemic free equilibrium of the malaria-only, COVID-19-only, and co-infection models. We run different simulations of the fractional-order co-infection model using a two-step Lagrange interpolation polynomial approximate method with the aid of the Maple software package. The results reveal that reducing the risk of malaria and COVID-19 by taking preventive measures will reduce the risk factor for getting COVID-19 after contracting malaria and will also reduce the risk factor for getting malaria after contracting COVID-19 even to the point of extinction.

Keywords: Atangana–Baleanu derivative; COVID-19; Co-infection; Fractional-order; Lyapunov function; Malaria.