Understanding the Effects of COVID-19 on Child Maltreatment Reporting Among Rural Versus Urban Communities in the United States

Juan J Nunez; John D Fluke; Gila R Shusterman; Nicole B Fettig

doi:10.1007/s42448-023-00163-y

Understanding the Effects of COVID-19 on Child Maltreatment Reporting Among Rural Versus Urban Communities in the United States

Int J Child Maltreat. 2023 Mar 30:1-16. doi: 10.1007/s42448-023-00163-y. Online ahead of print.

Authors

Juan J Nunez^{1

2}, John D Fluke³, Gila R Shusterman¹, Nicole B Fettig¹

Affiliations

¹ WRMA, Inc., a TriMetrix Company, 2111 Wilson Blvd, Suite 700, Arlington, VA 22201 USA.
² Department of Social Welfare, Luskin School of Public Affairs, University of California, Los Angeles, CA USA.
³ Kempe Center, Department of Pediatrics, University of Colorado School of Medicine, Aurora, CO USA.

Abstract

The onset of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic impacted child protective services (CPS) reporting systems in the United States. It may have also led to widened gaps between rural and urban communities in child maltreatment (CM) report rates due to decreased interaction between children and mandated reporters especially in urban jurisdictions. Using data from the National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System, this study tests the hypothesis that during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the decrease in CM reports made to CPS in urban counties was more pronounced than in rural counties. Reports of CM received by CPS offices between January 6, 2020 and June 28, 2020 were aggregated to per-county-per-week-per-10,000 children maltreatment report rates. We used changepoint analyses to analyze the inter- and intra-region incidence rate ratios among rural and urban counties. Moreover, we used multilevel random effects models to generate regression coefficients for the associations between rates of children with a maltreatment report, COVID-19 occurrence, rural-urban designation, and maltreatment risk factors. During the study period, rates of children with a maltreatment report among urban counties decreased more dramatically when compared with rural counties. Our findings persisted even with the inclusion of control variables associated with maltreatment risk factors. Social distancing restrictions may have had the unintended consequence of decreasing the visibility of at-risk children in urban counties more so than in rural counties. Considering geography is critical to continue to protect children during the COVID-19 pandemic and as we prepare for future disasters.

Keywords: COVID-19; Changepoint analysis; Child protective services; Child welfare; Multilevel models; Urbanicity.

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