Climate change and mortality rates of COPD and asthma: A global analysis from 2000 to 2018

Huan Minh Tran; Ting-Wu Chuang; Hsiao-Chi Chuang; Feng-Jen Tsai

doi:10.1016/j.envres.2023.116448

Climate change and mortality rates of COPD and asthma: A global analysis from 2000 to 2018

Environ Res. 2023 Sep 15:233:116448. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2023.116448. Epub 2023 Jun 21.

Authors

Huan Minh Tran¹, Ting-Wu Chuang², Hsiao-Chi Chuang³, Feng-Jen Tsai⁴

Affiliations

¹ Program in Global Health and Health Security, College of Public Health, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan; Faculty of Public Health, Da Nang University of Medical Technology and Pharmacy, Da Nang, Viet Nam. Electronic address: d537110006@tmu.edu.tw.
² Program in Global Health and Health Security, College of Public Health, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan; Department of Molecular Parasitology and Tropical Diseases, School of Medicine, College of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan. Electronic address: chtingwu@tmu.edu.tw.
³ School of Respiratory Therapy, College of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan; National Heart & Lung Institute, Imperial College London, UK. Electronic address: chuanghc@tmu.edu.tw.
⁴ Program in Global Health and Health Security, College of Public Health, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan. Electronic address: jeanfjtsai@tmu.edu.tw.

PMID: 37352955
DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2023.116448

Abstract

Background: Climate change plays a significant role in global health threats, particularly with respiratory diseases such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma, but the long-term global-scale impact of climate change on these diseases' mortality remains unclear.

Objective: This study aims to investigate the impact of climate change on the age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) of COPD and asthma at national levels.

Methods: We used Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data of ASMR of COPD and asthma from 2000 to 2018. The climate change index was represented as the deviance percentage of temperature (DPT) and relative humidity (DPRH), calculated based on 19-year temperature and humidity averages. Annual temperature, RH, and fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) levels in 185 countries/regions were obtained from ERA5 and the OECD's environmental statistics database. General linear mixed-effect regression models were used to examine the associations between climate change with the log of ASMR (LASMR) of COPD and asthma.

Results: After adjusting for annual PM_2.5, SDI level, smoking prevalence, and geographical regions, a 0.26% increase in DPT was associated with decreases of 0.016, 0.017, and 0.014 per 100,000 people in LASMR of COPD and 0.042, 0.046, and 0.040 per 100,000 people in LASMR of asthma for both genders, males, and females. A 2.68% increase in DPRH was associated with increases of 0.009 and 0.011 per 100,000 people in LASMR of COPD. We observed a negative association of DPT with LASMR for COPD in countries/regions with temperatures ranging from 3.8 to 29.9 °C and with LASMR for asthma ranging from -5.3-29.9 °C. However, we observed a positive association of DPRH with LASMR for both COPD and asthma in the RH range of 41.2-67.2%.

Conclusion: Climate change adaptation and mitigation could be crucial in reducing the associated COPD and asthma mortality rates, particularly in regions most vulnerable to temperature and humidity fluctuations.

Keywords: Asthma; Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD); Climate change; Mortality rate; Relative humidity; Temperature.

MeSH terms

Asthma* / epidemiology
Climate Change
Female
Global Health
Humans
Male
Particulate Matter / analysis
Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive* / epidemiology
Quality-Adjusted Life Years
Respiration Disorders* / epidemiology

Substances

Particulate Matter