Spatial and temporal coupling characteristics of industrial structure optimization and air quality in Chinese cities and multi-scale driver analysis

Abstract

This paper takes the panel data of 283 prefecture-level cities in China from 2011 to 2020 as the research sample, measures the comprehensive index of industrial structure optimization and air quality by using GRA-TOPSIS comprehensive evaluation method, explores the spatial and temporal divergence characteristics of industrial structure optimization and air quality and the spatial and temporal evolution pattern of coupled and coordinated development by using ArcGIS spatial analysis and coupled coordination degree model, and analyzes the driving factors of coupled coordination degree of industrial structure optimization and air quality by combining multi-scale geographically weighted regression model. The study found the following: (1) The overall level of China's urban industrial structure is low, and shows an obvious eastern > central > western decreasing trend; urban air quality has a strong spatial clustering and spatial locking effect. (2) During the study period, the coupling coordination degree of industrial structure optimization and air quality showed an inverted "W" shape fluctuation from 2011 to 2020. The coupling degree and coupling coordination degree in 2020 were both higher than that in 2011, and most cities were in the run-in stage and moderate coordination stage. (3) There is a consistency in the temporal evolution trend and spatial evolution pattern of industrial structure optimization and air quality coupling degree and coupling coordination degree. (4) The driving factors are ranked according to the scale of action: public transportation intensity > population density > government intervention > GDP per capita > industrialization level. At present, China is in a critical period of promoting high-quality development by ecological civilization, and it is recommended to optimize regional industrial structure, improve urban air quality, and promote coordinated urban development.

Keywords: Air quality; Coupling coordination; GRA-TOPSIS; Industrial structure optimization; Multi-scale geographically weighted regression.