Background: The post-operative course after Liver Transplantation (LT) can be complicated by early allograft dysfunction (EAD), primary nonfunction (PNF) and death. A lactate concentration at the end of transplant of ≥5 mmol/L was recently proposed as a predictive marker of PNF, EAD, and mortality; this study aimed to validate these previous reports in a large single center cohort.
Methods: This retrospective cohort study included adult liver transplant recipients who received grafts from deceased donors at our center between June 2012 and May 2021. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for the lactate concentration at the end of transplantation were computed to determine the AUC for PNF, EAD and mortality at 90 days.
Results: In our cohort of 1137 cases, the AUCs for lactate to predict EAD, PNF and mortality were respectively .56 (95% confidence interval [CI]: .53-.60), .69 (95% CI: .52-.85), and .74 (95% CI: .63-.84).
Conclusion: The clinical value of lactate concentration at the end of transplantation to predict PNF, EAD and mortality at 90 days was, at best, modest, as shown by the relatively low AUCs. Our findings cannot validate previous reports that the lactate level alone is a good predictor of poor outcomes after liver transplantation.
Keywords: early allograft dysfunction; lactic acid; liver transplant; mortality at 90 days; prediction factor; primary nonfunction.
© 2023 The Authors. Clinical Transplantation published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.