Objectives: Understand whether and how the COVID-19 pandemic affects the risk of different types of conflict worldwide in the context of climate change.
Methodology: Based on the database of armed conflict, COVID-19, detailed climate, and non-climate data covering the period 2020-2021, we applied Structural Equation Modeling specifically to reorganize the links between climate, COVID-19, and conflict risk. Moreover, we used the Boosted Regression Tree method to simulate conflict risk under the influence of multiple factors.
Findings: The transmission risk of COVID-19 seems to decrease as the temperature rises. Additionally, COVID-19 has a substantial worldwide impact on conflict risk, albeit regional and conflict risk variations exist. Moreover, when testing a one-month lagged effect, we find consistency across regions, indicating a positive influence of COVID-19 on demonstrations (protests and riots) and a negative relationship with non-state and violent conflict risk.
Conclusion: COVID-19 has a complex effect on conflict risk worldwide under climate change.
Implications: Laying the theoretical foundation of how COVID-19 affects conflict risk and providing some inspiration for the implementation of relevant policies.
Keywords: Boosted regression trees; COVID-19; Causal link; Conflict risk; Structural equation model.
© 2023 The Authors.