Environmental spillover of emerging viruses: Is it true?

Abstract

The concept of environmental "spillover" of pathogens to humans is widely used in the scientific literature about emerging diseases with the idea that it is scientifically proven. However, the exact characterization of the mechanism of spillover is simply lacking. A systematic review retrieved 688 articles using this term. The systematic analysis revealed an irreducible polysemy covering ten different definitions. It also demonstrated the absence of explicit definition in most of the articles, and even antinomies. A modeling analysis of the various processes described by these ten definitions showed that none of them corresponded to the complete trajectory leading to the emergence of a disease. There is no article demonstrating a mechanism of spillover. There are only ten articles proposing ideas on how a putative spillover could work but they merely are intellectual constructions. All other articles only reuse the term with no demonstration. It is essential to understand that since there is no scientific concept behind the "spillover", it might be dangerous to base public health and public protection against future pandemics on it.

Keywords: Disease emergence modeling; Emerging diseases; Inter-species transmission; Spillover; Zoonoses.